'Simple math tells me if the Democrats show up and the Republicans take the victory for granted, Jones could be headed to Washington' is how I ended a column published Aug. 17, two days after Roy Moore defeated Luther Strange in the Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate.
I had people ask me if I really thought Democrat Doug Jones stood a chance since Alabama had shown no inkling of electing a Democrat on a statewide basis for many, many years. It's been 25 years since a Democrat representing Alabama sat in the U.S. Senate.
It was also in that same Aug. 17 column talking about the lower voter turnout in the Republican runoff that I wrote 'That's when the Democrats will begin smelling blood in the water. That's when they'll know if they can rally their troops behind Jones they've got a legitimate shot at winning the election'.
Most people thought I was crazy. Columnist Steve Flowers, who you can read in this paper weekly' said many times in print and on the radio that Alabama would not elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate.
I had someone call me Tuesday night to tell me “you called this thing months ago”.
I really didn't call it. I don't have any crystal ball, but I could smell the blood in the water for the Democrats.
If Strange had won that runoff, he'd be our next Senator. If Strange hadn't taken the appointment from then Gov. Robert Bentley, he'd be our next Senator. If Strange had been the GOP nominee, there would have been no blood smell in the water and I would have never suggested Jones had a chance of winning.
But we're talking about Roy Moore. I knew Moore had his core supporters because he hates gays and wants the Ten Commandments displayed everywhere. In a conservative state like Alabama, that's a good road to election.
My distaste for Moore began way before the sex allegations. It began when he was chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court (the first time) and ignored the federal courts over his Ten Commandments monument. My distaste continued when he was back at the top of the Alabama Supreme Court and refused to accept the federal ruling that allowed same-sex marriages. I'm not saying I don't agree with some of Moore's feelings, but I had a hard time accepting the fact that our highest judicial officer was refusing to abide by the laws he took an oath to enforce. My distaste went higher when he tried to throw probate judges across this state under the bus in a memo telling them not to issue same sex marriage licenses in direct contradiction to the federal courts.
I voted for Mo Brooks in the Republican Primary, but turned around and voted for Moore in the runoff. I couldn't support Strange because I thought he sold his soul to Bentley. I didn't support Moore. I voted for Moore in the runoff because I felt Jones had a better chance of beating Moore than Strange.
I was right and wrong on a couple of things involving Tuesday's election. First, I would have never dreamed 40.46 percent of the voters in Alabama would turn out or that 34 percent of voters in Escambia County would vote. Voter turnout in the previous election cycle to fill this Senate seat had been in the teens.
But I was right about one thing, the Democrats did smell the blood and they showed up.
Some, including President Trump, are saying the write-in campaign launched by Lee Busby cost Moore the election. I disagree. My bet is Busby and other write-in candidates pulled as many votes away from the Jones camp as they did from the Moore camp. Over the past several months I've talked to some so-called Republicans who said they couldn't vote for Moore, but couldn't vote for a Democrat. They said they weren't going to vote at all. Busby gave them an out. I had others who said they couldn't stand Moore but were more likely to vote for Jones. Busby gave them an out also and that Jones vote went into the Busby hamper.
Busby didn't cost Moore the election, Moore caused his own downfall.
Does any of this mean Alabama is turning into a blue Democratic state. No. So, I'll go ahead and make my prediction that Jones will serve out the remaining two years of Session's term and he will be defeated by the Republican nominee in 2020.
That of course depends on whether the Republicans march Strange or Moore-like candidates to the ballot box.
Tuesday's election was no 'mandate' by Alabama voters. It was simply a vote to say we will elect candidates with integrity over candidates who lack it regardless of their party affiliation.
